November 19, 2015

Justin Huebner, Grain Division Manager Grain Commentary

Corn

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Dec ‘15 364’2 +2’4 NC ‘15 343’0 +3’0
Mar ‘16 370’2 +2’0 Dec ‘15 336’0 Unch.
May ‘16 375’6 +2’2 Jan ‘15 344’0 +3’0
Jul ‘16 380’6 +2’0 Feb ‘15 344’0 +3’0

 

Soybeans

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Nov ‘15 860’0 +2’2 NC ‘15 812’0 +2’0
Jan ‘16 863’0 +2’2 Dec ‘15 807’0 +3’0
Mar ‘16 869’0 +2’4 Jan ‘15 805’0 +2’0
May ‘16 875’2 +2’4 Feb ‘15 808’0 +3’0

 

The grains bounced today following strong exports and a sharply lower dollar.

Technically, January beans held support @ yesterday’s low and above the contract low of 8.50.

Rainfall continues to delay plantings as well as wheat harvest in southern Brazil.

Drought continues in Australia with reports of wildfires destroying crops in the west.

US drought monitor shows improving conditions; D1-D4 @ 22.78% lowest since 2011.

Weekly exports were considered friendly, helping beans bounce off the lows.

Bean sales were 66.1 mb, corn sales were 30.7 mb (mkt yr high) and wheat @ 26.5 mb.

YTD sales of corn @ 573 mb vs 812 mb LY, USDA forecasting just a 64 mb reduction.

YTD bean sales total 1135 mb vs 1367 LY with the USDA forecasting a 128 mb reduction.

Egyptian gov’t slashes wheat subsidies which should lower production, increase imports.

CRB Index down 20% this yr, largest drop since 2008; Goldman Sachs sees commodities slide continuing.

 

November 19, 2015