May 23, 2019

Corn

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Jul ‘19 389’6 -4’6 May ‘19 346’0 -9’0
Sep ‘19 398’4 -5’2 June ’19 348’0 -8’0
Dec ‘19 408’0 -4’6 July ‘19 350’0 -7’0
Mar ‘20 419’2 -3’4 NC ‘19 358’0 -5’0

 

Soybeans

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
July ‘19 821’4 -7’0 May ‘19 743’0 -7’0
Aug ‘19 828’2 -7’2 June ’19 739’0 -7’0
Sep ‘19 835’2 -7’0 July ‘19 735’0 -7’0
Nov ‘19 848’2 -7’0 NC ‘19 758’0 -7’0

 

An interesting day in the markets today as the market shook off the cold, wet forecasts.  Instead they focused on the USDA release of the MFP 2 program.  The rumored 4 cents per bushel for corn and $2 per bushel reported by news outlets recently turned out to be completely not true.  The USDA’s goal was to not influence planting decisions this year.  The USDA will spend $14.5 billion on payments to US farmers on eligible crops.  Many specifics and payment schedules still need to be figured out and released, and it does not seem to favor one crop over another.  With the eligible acres, the $14.5 billion would mean the USDA could spend more than $55/ac.  Producers that opt for Prevent Plant this year are not eligible for payment, which is what spooked the market after the news was released.  This brought up ideas that this would entice producers enough to really push to plant as many acres as possible, regardless of crop, planting date, and/or loss in crop insurance coverage if past the appropriate final planting dates.  Ultimately, how I view this is that some producers that had considered taking Prevent Plant for their corn acres, may instead opt to plant soybeans if the wet weather continues, because this program looks to discourage soybean Prevent Plant options.  However, until we know more about the payment plans, producers won’t know what decision to make that most benefits them financially.

May 23, 2019