June 28, 2019

Justin Huebner, Grain Division Manager Grain Commentary

Corn

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
Jul ‘19 420’2 -19’6 June ’19 389’0 -21’0
Sep ‘19 424’6 -21’0 July ‘19 388’0 -21’0
Dec ‘19 431’4 -19’4 Aug ‘19 386’0 -21’0
Mar ‘20 439’4 -17’2 NC ‘19 385’0 -19’0

 

Soybeans

CBOT Prices Two Rivers Cash Bid Prices
July ‘19 899’6 +12’0 June ’19 828’0 +11’0
Aug ‘19 904’4 +10’6 July ‘19 828’0 +11’0
Sep ‘19 911’0 +11’0 Aug ‘19 833’0 +11’0
Nov ‘19 923’0 +10’6 NC ‘19 841’0 +11’0

 

Corn sold off hard and soybeans rallied on the data released by the USDA for the quarterly report

USDA put corn acres at 91.7 million acres, more than 5 million acres lower than average estimates

Soybean acres were at 80 million, 4.355 million lower than average trade estimates

Keep in mind, the survey from farmers was for intentions in early June

The USDA said they would re-survey to more accurately reflect prevent plant decisions made later

I take this as the USDA admitted they know their acreage number is inaccurate due to old data

So this leaves the stocks numbers as the only numbers that should have mattered today

Corn stocks were pegged at 5.202 billion bushels, 130 million lower than average estimates

Soybean stocks were pegged at 1.79 billion, 71 million bushels lower than estimates

Typically they will incorporate these acre numbers into the July monthly report

This year, they may use their discretion in changing numbers closer to what they believe is accurate

June 28, 2019